Ken's blog

Speedy Surveys Inc. one afternoon sent five surveyors to carry out a statistical study on matching birth data from a base point In the walking street of Mapletown.

The surveyor would ask a random person to give their first name, day and month of birth, then check for a match on their list. As soon as a match was found the surveyor would return to the base point with the list.

After return of the five surveyors with their lists, the data was collected and the process repeated again for a total of ten times.

The data were then compiled into a complete report for Speedy Surveys Inc.

As a special bonus, surveyors who interviewed someone who had the same birth data as themselves were awarded a free pizza meal at the famous Guiseppe’s Pizza House.

What would you say was the average number of persons that had to be interviewed by a surveyor to get a birth data match?

What would you say was the probability that at least two of the five surveyors were awarded a free pizza meal?

“Hey Jack, look over there, a small chapel hidden behind those palm trees in the jungle,” said Jill, pointing excitedly, “let’s have a look.”

Jack and Jill were enjoying their vacation wandering about on the island of La Gaviota in the Caribbean after having won a two-week all expenses paid trip in a TV contest.

“Maybe it’s Blackbeard’s chapel, the notorious pirate who became religious at the end of his days,” said Jack. “Before dying of yellow fever, he hid his treasure and his crew was never able to find it.”

They entered the small solitary chapel, floor and walls partly overgrown with jungle vegetation, and saw a rectangular altar on which stood a large golden cross. A PX Christogram was embroidered on the altar cloth.

“Look, Jack!! There are seven cannons stuck vertically into the ground muzzle first with their round ends cut off, leaving gaping holes. They are all placed in a semicircle in front of the altar,” said Jill with a slight gasp of surprise. “That’s crazy.”

“Sure Jill, I also see three piles of cannon balls, four to each pile, spread in a fan pattern in front of the cannons. I wonder why?”

“I read that Blackbeard fell in love with a nun named Maria and decided to leave all his gold and jewels to the Church for good works, but the yellow fever got them both before they could do it.

“Really, how interesting. Blackbeard must have been a special guy.” Jill was fascinated.

Behind the altar there was a painting of the Ascension, the frame supported by two sturdy wooden pillars well fixed in masonry.

“Look at the hymn board over there, Jack. Psalms 101:3. What could that mean?”

“I know that psalm, seems Blackbeard was penitent. I wonder what the number MMMMVII inscribed in gold letters on the altar cloth stands for,” said Jack, scratching his head, “and the text at the bottom of the painting:”

GLOBULI IN FORAMINIS AURUM REVELARE

“Twelve cannon balls and seven cannons. I’ve read that Blackbeard was quite inventive, maybe there’s a mechanism for opening something,” Jack mused, eyeing the inverted cannons.

“Then the cannon balls must be involved somehow, maybe to exert pressure, and don’t forget the numbers, Jack.” suggested Jill.

“That gives me an idea,” said Jack, pulling out a pen, notepad and a calculator from his bag. Let me figure out how long it will take.”

“I’ll Google the Latin,” said Jill, cheerfully, “I have a feeling we’ll work this out pretty soon, Jack. Say, I wonder where they’re buried.”

What do you figure Jack and Jill could do to uncover Blackbeard’s treasure?

Barnaby of the Barnaby and Bartholomew East India Trading Co. was worried as none of his ships had returned so far this month of May, 1776.

Lately, statistics were not very promising. Only six out of ten ships were returning, whether due to bad weather or piracy or both.

Five ships were due to return this month, but Barnaby could manage to survive somehow if three ships entered port.

What would you say was the probability that exactly three of Barnaby’s ships returned?

And the probability that at least three of Barnaby’s ships returned?

One Saturday afternoon, as Jack, now a full-fledged member, entered the Snake Eyes Dice Club in River City, he saw four persons throwing dice at a felt-covered table with Vince, the dealer.

“What’s up today, Vince?” asked Jack.

“Let me introduce you to Simon, Mary, Seamus and Henry here,” said Vince.

Polite hellos and smiles were exchanged.

“We’re playing a new game called “First Ace,” explained Vince.

“And how does it work, Vince?”

“Well, each person gets to throw a die in turn and the first one to get an ace wins the pot,” explained Vince. “If nobody throws an ace, I get the pot.”

“What does it cost to play the game?”

“Each player adds ten dollars to the pot per round, and I add 36 dollars,” said Vince.

“Interesting… Is this an honest game, Vince?” asked Jack, giving a skeptical look.

“As honest as most gambling games,” replied Vince with a smug wink.

“Sure, Vince. I’ll be heading for the lounge.”

Jack walked off, leaving Simon, Mary, Seamus and Henry with worried looks.

After ten rounds of “First Ace” what would you say Vince’s average gain or loss might be?

What about the average respective gains or losses of Simon, Mary, Seamus and Henry after ten rounds?

Is there any big winner in this game? Or big loser?

Sally Jones arrived at the Mega Market Mall and slid her white Ford Fiesta in among eight other cars in a parking section that could accommodate nine.

Sally received a call from Molly while parking.

“I’m at a restaurant right now lunching with Jane, Sally, but we’ll soon be off to the Mega Market Mall in separate cars,” said Molly excitedly. “There’s a big sale on shoes. How can we meet up?”

“Just park your cars on both sides of my white Ford Fiesta. I’ll be able to see you between the trees from the window of the art exhibition hall, and I’ll come get you.”

“But if the slots next to your car are occupied, how can we meet?”

“There is lots of traffic in and out of the mall. Should be no problem.”

Molly didn’t seem convinced.

If there were five cars including Sally’s in the parking section, what would be the probability that Molly and Jane could park alongside Sally’s car?

On a Saturday evening early in May, there was a televised live band Latin dance show with ten selected couples gyrating at the Mundo de Salsa Dance Hall.

“Welcome to the Buenavista Travel Agency promotional dance, amigos. At the end of the evening some of you may become the winners of a world tour, all expenses paid,” announced Carlos Sanchez, the host, in a promising tone of voice.

“Jill, this is a great party,” said Jack, stepping rapidly to the salsa rhythms. “Let’s see about winning the prize at the end of the evening.”

“That’s probably why we are each wearing a number, Jack. Love this kind of dancing,” said Jill, gyrating her hips and twisting her body to the captivating music.

Later, at the end of the evening, after a loud fanfare from the band, Carlos Sanchez took up the microphone again.

“Buenos amigos, we have arrived at the magic moment of selecting the winners of the world tour. Soon eight random numbers will appear on this screen,” said Carlos Sanchez, indicating a display suspended from the ceiling above him.

Jack and Jill fixed their attention on the display.

“If the number you are wearing appears, please sit at the table here to my left,” said Carlos Sanchez, indicating a small, round table nearby.

Jill moved closer to the table.

“Should you then also see your partner sitting at the table, you will both have won a world tour,” said Carlos Sanchez.

”I’m sure we’ll win,” said Jill animatedly, “I’ve already bought a new travel case.”

What would you say is the probability that Jack and Jill win a world tour?

What about the probability that at least one couple wins?

And what is the probability that exactly one couple wins a world tour?

“Welcome to a special promotional event sponsored by ACME Innovations Inc.,” said PR Jane Doe, speaking enthusiastically into a microphone to a hundred guests gathered in a large salon.

“ACME Innovation Inc. has developed a special velcro sticker which has been designed to test the spreading of rumors. It displays a number on a small LCD screen. By reading a persons’ unique vitality field, the number is incremented by one on being handed to someone else,” explained Jane Doe pleasantly.

“When you receive it, please pass on the sticker someone nearby. I’ll be mingling with you all and when the badge returns to me by this process of random handovers, whoever in advance has correctly guessed the number that will be displayed on the badge will win a thousand dollars,” said Jane Doe.

“Please enter you name and the number you estimate or guess on a slip of paper that you will find on the table over there by the entrance and place it in the box,” said Jane Doe, indicating the table.

Jane Doe stuck the velcro sticker on the first person nearby, and the procedure begun.

What is your estimate of the most probable number on the badge when it is returned by a random path to Jane Doe?

“Looks pretty suspicious to me, Molly,” growled Sam Diamond, peering out of the window at the parking lot below through two slats he held apart in the blinds.

“What do you mean, suspicious?” asked Molly with a worried tone. She stood up to join Sam at the window.

“Don’t you see those cars over there in the shadow area of the street light?” said Sam, adjusting the pistol in the holster hanging inside his jacket.

“I see some black cars,” said Molly, “but what’s so suspicious about them?” Molly wasn’t gifted with a  great deal of imagination.

“The way they’re parked, of course,” snarled Sam, peering more closely with his nose touching the window pane.

“I just see nine black cars parked side by side in a zone with white stripe marks in the street for 14 cars,” said Molly, “and what’s so suspicious about that?”

“So why are they all parked together with the other five spaces empty, eh?” said Sam, “I tell you, Molly, something funny’s going on.”

Sam pulled out his gun and left the office to go investigate, and Molly sat down, blonde curls dangling over her bewildered face.

Do you think Sam had any reason to be suspicious on seeing the arrangement of nine cars parked side by side in a small parking zone intended for fourteen cars, considering the probability of such a configuration?

One rainy Saturday evening some years ago in lower Manhattan, Jane, a ticket girl, rushed into the  booth of the Roxy movie theatre to prepare things for the night shift.

As usual, Eusebio, the evening shift ticket seller, had left the booth in a mess, with an ashtray full of thin butts, and Jane was shocked to see the cash register empty – no bills to give change with.

Jane looked up to see some Japanese tourists lining up to buy tickets for the five-dollar late movie of the evening “The Seven Samurai”, when a toothy, smiling and bowing Japanese who seemed to be the tour guide stuck his face in into the ticket window.

“Kon’nichiwa, me Mr. Fujimori. We ten tourist from Osaka, see samurai movie. Half have 10 dollar bill, other half have five dollar bill. You give change, buy ticket, no problem, ok?”

“Sure, Mr. Fujimori, I’ll do what I can to give you all correct change,” said Jane politely, feeling a mounting panic, knowing that the cashbox was empty.

“What shall I do, what shall I do…” spun around in her head, “What if the first person to buy a ticket gives me a ten dollar bill? I won’t have any change to give back.”

Then Jane got a bright idea, which she implemented with the aid of Mr. Fujimori, and all tickets were sold with correct change given so that Jane ended up with fifty dollars in the till.

What would you say was the bright idea Jane got to solve this problem?

What would be the probability of successfully terminating each ticket transaction without any problems giving change if the Japanese in the queue had been lined up at random?

One Sunday evening in River City, CNXY was in the process of televising a mayoral candidate debate with ten aspirants so they could practice their persuasive oratory on voters to gain their votes.

A random method was employed to program the speaker sequence, but it had been secretly pre-arranged by concerned citizens that Barnard S. Fagg would speak before Sheldon M. Weeder.

However, since Corby, the programmer of the random method, was somewhat inexperienced, he couldn’t guarantee whether Barnard S. Fagg would speak immediately before Sheldon M. Weeder, or there would be an interval of several speakers after Barnard S. Fagg.

Sheldon M. Weeder’s campaign manager considered it vital that Weeder should speak immediately after Barnard S. Fagg so that the plethora of flowery utopian statements expounded by Barnard S. Fagg could be disproved and ridiculed – a task which Sheldon M. Weeder was an expert at accomplishing.

At the CNXY television station, the mayoral candidates were then placed in seats around a table on the platform in the programmed order, and were all preparing to ply their persuasive abilities on the TV public so as to secure their votes in the coming mayoral election.

What would you say was the probability that Barnard S. Fagg would speak immediately before Sheldon M. Weeder so the latter could accomplish his task?