Bags with Gold and Silver Coins

“Jack and Jill, which bag do you choose for a chance of winning ten thousand dollars,” hailed the cheerful game show host Dusty Farlone, “the blue bag with three gold and seven silver coins, or the red bag with four gold and three silver coins. What do you say?”

“Dusty, what were the conditions, again?” asked Jack.

“You can pick six coins out of the blue bag with ten coins, or you can pick six coins out of the red bag with seven coins, in both cases replacing the coin each time. Whichever bag you choose, if you manage to pick three gold coins, you will win ten thousand dollars plus all the coins in the bag, of course,” said Dusty Farlone, smoothing his slick hairdo.

“Our charming Marlene will bring you the bag you select so you can pick the six coins, and help you put them back into the bag again,” said Dusty Fallon, indicating the svelte Marlene. “You have a minute to decide while the music plays.”

Jack turned to Jill. “You took a course in probability theory. Which bag seems the most promising for winning the prize, Jill, the blue or the red one?”

“Hmm… good question,” said Jill, “quick, hand me your scientific calculator, Jack.”

Which bag would you say has the greatest probability of success for picking three gold coins and winning the game show prize of ten thousand dollars?

About Ken

Bachelor of Science in Physics, Honors, University of Maryland. Graduate of Danish School of Classical Homeopathy in 1998. Studies over several years at the International Academy of Classical Homeopathy in Alonnisos, Greece with the world-famous homeopath George Vithoulkas (winner of the Right Livelihood Award, the alternative Nobel Prize). Director of Klinik for Klassisk Homøopati in Herlev, Denmark. Director of the Iberian School and Clinic of Classical Homeopathy in Estepona, Costa del Sol, Spain and Gibraltar. Founding member of the Spanish Association of Classical Homeopathy (Asociación Española de Homeopatía Unicista) approved by ECCH (European Council for Classical Homeopathy). Currently director of the International Homeopathic Web Clinic and the Avila Clinic and School of Classical Homeopathy in Caracas, Venezuela. Kjetill Oftedal offers consultations in English, Spanish, Norwegian, Danish, Swedish, German, Dutch and Portuguese.
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