One early and sunny Sunday afternoon at the Royal Banana Plantation Bridge Club, there arose an animated discussion as to whether hand A consisting of five clubs, four hearts, three diamonds and one spade was more probable than hand B with four spades, four hearts, four diamonds and one club.
Murphy Smythe thought that hand A would be more probable since there were more clubs. Sally Witheroak said that hand B was more certain as there were many fours and only one club.
The members of the Royal Banana Plantation Bridge Club took sides and split up into two contentious groups, each respectively supporting Smythe’s or Witheroak’s view. This led to multiple impassioned speeches that stretched into the early evening.
The argument was finally settled by Lenny, Sally Witheroak’s little son – who had a scientific calculator in his backpack – after Lenny arrived with his father to fetch mother home to make supper.
What would you say was more probable, hand A or hand B?