Posts Tagged ‘Bayes’ rule’

The Chinese Round Table

Friday, August 31st, 2018

One fine evening, Jack and Jill were dining at the Fu Manchu Magic Noodle House, their favorite Chinese restaurant. They sat at a round table served by their regular waitress, Wang Shu.

A number of dishes containing delicious tidbits for plucking off with their chopsticks were situated in front of them on a rotatable round tray.

Jack and Jill sampled the many delectable Chinese morsels to their heart’s content.

“Pick a fortune cookie, Jack,” said Jill, pointing at the decorated cookie jar in the center of the table.

“The cookie says: ‘Good fortune. Soon get special dessert’,” said Jack.

“Hmm,” said Jill, “what does it mean, Wang Shu?”

“Now, special desert,” announced Wang Shu while clearing up after dinner.

Wang Shu placed four dishes containing fried ice cream balls and spicy chocolate truffle balls – delicious Chinese desserts.

In each of the first three dishes there were two fried ice cream balls and eight spicy chocolate truffle balls. The fourth dish contained six fried ice cream balls and four spicy chocolate truffle balls.

“Fortune cookie offer special dessert,” said Wang Shu.

“How generous,” replied Jack.

“Bring it on, Wang Shu,” said Jill.

“Close eyes,” said Wang Shu, “you too,” addressing Jill. Wang Shu spun the dessert tray with the four dishes.

“Please, keep eyes closed and pick one dessert from dish,” said Wang Shu to Jack. Jack picked a dessert ball, which Wang Shu quickly replaced from a large pot containing both dessert types.

Jack opened his eyes and saw a fried ice cream ball melting in his hand, which he promptly ate to his great satisfaction.

“You guess which dish ball from, you no pay. Boss say special promotion,” informed Wang Shu.

“We like that,” said Jill.

Jack scratched his head and then wrote some figures on a napkin, Jill peeping on. Then Jack pointed to a dish.

“Correct dish you choose. Boss say, this time free, next time you pay plenty,” said Wang Shu with a big smile.

Jill was already busy munching away at the balls on the dessert dishes.

“Doggie bag, please,” said Jack.

Was Jack just lucky or had he worked out a probable dish to pick?

Which of the dishes do you think Jack chose?

The Flying Card

Tuesday, August 28th, 2018

At the Lucky Duck casino Nick, the dealer, was sitting at a green felt table and practicing fancy acrobatic shuffles with a deck of cards when suddenly one card flew away and sailed into a nearby plant bed with some petunias and foliage.

“I’ll bet ya 100 bucks you can’t figure out if da card dat just flew away from your deck is a red or a black one,” said Carmine, the floor overseer who happened to be walking by and observe the event.

“You’re on,” said Nick, “on one condition.”

“What’s dat,” replied Carmine with some suspicion.

“That I draw 13 cards from the deck at random,” said Nick.

“Ok, sure,” said Carmine, “no problem, Nick, go ahead an pull dem.”

Nick then drew 13 cards at random from the deck and they all turned out to be black cards.

Then Nick pulled out a calculator, a notepad and a pen and got busy making some calculations.

After some minutes had passed Nick proudly announced: “The card is red, Carmine, go and check it out.”

Carmine walked over to the flower bed and picked up a red card.

“Jeez, Nick, how did ya figger dat out?”

“Give me the 100 bucks and buy me a beer and I’ll tell you all about how to make a pretty sure bet,” said Nick.

 

Can you figure out how Nick knew that the card most likely was a red one?