A Medieval Tournament

Lord Highcastle of the Moors was holding a tournament in which the first event would be jousting between the three knights Godfrey, Hotspur and the Black Knight. The winner of this event would receive the hand of Lady Marion and a mansion with a large estate.

The knight winning two jousts in a row would get the prize.

Godfrey and Hotspur were to do battle in the first joust, the winner jousting against the Black Knight. If the winner of this match had not already won twice, he would joust against the knight awaiting his turn, and so forth. This to continue until one knight won twice in succession.

Heavy bets were being made in favor of the Black Knight winning within five jousts.

What do you say is the probability that the Black Knight wins within five jousts?

What is the probability that Hotspur rides off with the Lady Marion?

What is the maximum number of jousts needed to arrive at a final winner?


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